So what was that all about? One minute you're wondering what the year might
have in store; the next you're wondering what, if anything, you'll remember it
for.
In a sense, it's the same question: when someone mentions '2012' in years to
come, what memories will it conjure in your mind? It's no easier to answer than
it was back in January. Some obvious subject-headings suggest themselves, now as
then: the Olympics; the Leveson inquiry; the re-election of president Obama;
and, presumably, some aspect of the Middle East's travails. The rest is
speculation.
There will, inevitably, have been deeper themes: turning-points and
watersheds for which future historians will use '2012' as shorthand. But it's
far too early to pick them out. Was this the year that the first nail was
hammered into what would become the coffin of British press freedom? The year
the eurozone crisis hit rock bottom? The year the US finally faced up to the
perils of climate change? Perhaps. Or perhaps all three propositions are closer
to being the opposite of the truth.
Only time will tell. In retrospect, we can look back at 1812 and recognise
instantly that this was the year when the outcome of the hitherto
endless-seeming Napoleonic wars was determined. It may not have seemed so
obvious at the time; just as it probably wasn't obvious that the assassination
that same year of a serving British prime minister would never really lodge
itself in public memory. But the death of Spencer Perceval, unlike the failed
invasion of Russia, didn't change history.
Sometimes, of course, years are remembered not for historic turning-points
but for events that resonate on a more human scale. All sorts of things happened
in 1912 that would change history, principally by helping to cause the First
World War. But all that most of us can tell you about it is that it was the year
of the Titanic disaster – and (if we are especially clever) of Captain Scott's
disastrous race to the South Pole.
There has been no shortage of compelling human dramas in 2012. It seems
possible, though, that some of the biggest – the Jimmy Savile scandals, for
example, or the murder of a British family in Annecy – are simply too harrowing
to make a permanent mark, and will turn out instead to be things we sweep under
a carpet of forgetting as soon as we decently can.
As for the other stories that once made deafening headlines (leaving aside
the Olympics, which we celebrate today in a separate sport supplement), it's
alarming how quickly most of them have faded. Would you associate 2012 with the
belated conviction of two of Stephen Lawrence's murderers? With the Costa
Concordia disaster? With the Queen's Diamond Jubilee? With Felix Baumgartner's
leap from space? Or with the 'cash for access' scandal?
Would you, asked what you remembered about the year, have mentioned
'Pastygate', 'Plebgate', 'Calm down, dear', the resignation of Fabio Capello?
The shaming of Bob Diamond? Samantha Brick? Naked Prince Harry? All these were
huge talking-points at the time; most already feel like obscure historical
footnotes.
Perhaps it's just me, or perhaps our attention spans have grown too short for
events to resonate for a full 12 months. If a news story does run and run, it's
usually because it's a broad issue (the ailing economy, corporate tax avoidance,
extreme weather, the Church of England's sexual difficulties) that keeps
returning in a different form. Such themes are hardly unique to 2012.
I suspect that – Olympics apart – the stories that truly define the year have
yet to be recognised, although in retrospect they may well seem obvious. A time
may come when every schoolchild knows that the Higgs boson was found in 2012; or
that this was the year when the dieback fungus arrived that would wipe out every
ash tree in the UK. Perhaps this year heard the first shots fired in the great
Sino-Japanese war – or the last shots fired in the Syrian revolt. Perhaps this
was when Julian Assange began his 40-year stay in the Ecuadorian embassy.
History is capricious about what it preserves and what it consigns to its
dustbin. Some years – 1712, for example – are remembered for barely anything.
(Try it, if you run out of party games.) We can speculate all Christmas about
which events of 2012 will echo through the ages, but your guess is as good as
ours; which is why, in this Review of the Year issue, we don't attempt to
distinguish between events that changed the world and those that simply changed
the moment.
Like every year, this one has been exhilarating in its complexity. From
politics to the press, fashion to foreign affairs, royalty to the environment –
every category has produced contradictory messages. (Was it the great British
drought that defined our environmental year, or the great British floods, or the
great British freeze?) Over the next 22 pages, our specialist writers look back
on the moments that meant most to them, under 14 headings. (The arts, and sport,
have their own supplement.)
The overall theme is 'the long and short of it' – with each topic accompanied
by a memorable image and the tweets that sometimes capture, best of all, the
spirit of a particular event.
What you make of it all is up to you. What history makes of it remains to be
seen. But we can make one pronouncement about the significance of 2012: it was
the year the world didn't end.
For decades – some say centuries – New Age enthusiasts and admirers of the
ancient Mayans have held that the end of the world would take place on 21
December 2012; a belief so popular that, until recently, it was the main result
thrown up by an internet search for '2012'.
At the time of going to press, however, the world hadn't ended. If you're
reading this, it still hasn't.
In Politics
After all the strange, funny and serious political dramas of the past 12
months, we are more or less back to where we started. The coalition is
determinedly stable while being precariously fragile. Like last Christmas, David
Cameron has cause to be worried and Nick Clegg to be alarmed about future
electoral prospects. Yet for much of the year they have appeared calm, as if
armed with invisible shields protecting them from the storms.
Behind the shields there was a significant shift within the coalition and in
the way it was perceived. The key event was George Osborne's budget, one in
which both Prime Minister and Chancellor ended up having to explain when they
had last eaten a Cornish pasty, a consumption that suddenly became a symbol of
the degree to which they were engaged with the electorate.
In one of the most inept budgets of recent decades, Osborne raised the taxes
on pasties. An anguished cry went out across selected parts of the land: "When
did those toffs last eat a pasty?". Osborne was not seen in public for weeks so
he did not have to answer the question. Cameron declared that he had enjoyed a
pasty at Leeds Station only to discover there was no shop selling the
contentious item at this particular location. The silly furore was one of
several that arose from a budget that caused chaos for months.
It also gave Labour an accessible policy to protest against: the cut in
income tax for high earners. Liberal Democrats had briefed energetically in
advance of the budget in the hope that they would get credit for some of the
progressive measures. In the event they got no political dividend, while so much
of the budget was leaked that Osborne might as well have said: "You've read it
all in the newspapers. Thank you and goodnight".
The ceremonial dimension of the Olympics captured the changing political mood
brought about partly by the budget. In the same way Hamlet trapped Claudius into
watching a re-enactment of the latter's royal fratricide, Cameron was forced to
applaud as the Olympics opened partly with a celebration of the NHS, an
institution being subjected to unprecedented reform. At least he was not booed,
as Osborne was when making a public appearance at the Games.
Still, Cameron and Osborne can cling to the hope that they may still win the
election. Nick Clegg instead keeps his fingers crossed for credible survival at
the next election. In policy terms, his failure to make progress with House of
Lords' reform was a substantial setback raising further questions about how much
the Liberal Democrats are getting from the coalition.
After the summer break, Clegg returned apparently fresh and ready to say
"sorry" for what had happened in relation to tuition fees. It was a cleverly
thought-through apology, in which he said "sorry" for the pledge not to raise
fees and not for the increase that followed the election. But Clegg struggled to
be heard in 2012. Within a day, a musical video mocked his apology and was
soaring up the YouTube charts. It is a reflection of his fragile position that
he was almost relieved to be greeted by mockery rather than the fury of the
early months in power. None the less, Clegg can take comfort from the discipline
of his party, some policy gains on tax and welfare and the way in which the
coalition survived the storms.
There is one small difference from 12 months ago. Last January there was much
speculation, in parts of the Labour Party as well as in the media, that Ed
Miliband would not survive as leader. A series of solid performances since, not
least his party conference speech, makes him at least as secure as the other two
main party leaders. Miliband has passed some early tests of opposition,
performing fairly well at Prime Minister's Questions, winning by-elections and,
more importantly, framing a partially compelling story around tumultuous
external events, a narrative about fairness, markets and living standards. So
far he has only sketched out early chapters, some of it is incomprehensible and
the bigger tests are still to come, but he can afford a degree of
satisfaction.
He has made a small mark during a year that felt like the mid-1970s, a hung
parliament, economic crisis, Europe a dominant issue, a fragile government
plodding on and no leader sure of their fate at the next general election.
Expect more of the same in 2013.
@Ianvisits If there is a petrol shortage, how will I drive
to Greggs to stock up on pasties before the tax hike makes them a luxury
food?
Ian Mansfield, blogger
@mrmarksteel I missed the budget. I expect he confiscated
the unearned wealth of rapacious bankers to distribute among the people. I'll
check later
Mark Steel, comedian and columnist for The Independent
@kevmcveigh Why did 80,000 people boo George Osborne? Because that's the
maximum capacity of the Olympic Stadium
Kevin McVeigh, blogger
ChrisBryantMP Are there 249,999 others out there who will
chip in a £ to persuade Cameron/Osborne to reverse #grannytax?
Chris Bryant, Labour MP for Rhondda
@frasernels Ed Miliband is certainly right on one thing: the
NHS Bill "is a disaster". Must rank amongst top-10 parliamentary screwups of all
time
Fraser Nelson, editor of The Spectator
@gavinshuker Gideon apologises for communication of the
budget. The Titanic didn't have a communication problem. It had an iceberg
problem. #osbornomics
Gavin Shuker, Labour MP
@paulwaugh Witney resident: "I looked up + realised the sky
was moving in 2 different directions". Eyewitness re tornado. Not the PM on the
Coalition
Paul Waugh, editor of politicshome.com
@johnprescott Would you like a cup of tea? Cameron: "Yes.
No. I'll put it to a referendum. Possibly." He's not the Heir to Blair. He's
Major Minor!
John Prescott, former Deputy Leader of the Labour party)
@sunny_hundal Speech finished. Ed Mili has pulled off the
near impossible: impressed most people and united the party with his delivery
#lab12
Sunny Hundal, blogger
The Media
This has been the year in which the British media has shone a spotlight on
itself as never before, exposing sinister industry secrets that had remained
hidden for years.
The public, which no doubt assumed itself unshockable in this media-savvy
age, now finds itself feeling gullible and betrayed. No part of the media has
emerged from this year's scrutiny without its reputation being further
diminished. The BBC has lost a Director General, who resigned after the shortest
tenure in the organisation's history. The big beasts of the press have been
hauled before a judicial inquiry to be grilled on questionable practices.
The year's biggest sensation was the revelation of the activities of Jimmy
Savile. The story has besmirched the memory of an era in television and radio
that was regarded by many as a time of innocence. Operation Yewtree, the
resulting police investigation, has increased fears that the Jim'll Fix It
host's sexually exploitative behaviour was part of a wider industry culture.
The period in which Savile was running amok, orchestrating child sex abuse in
his BBC dressing room while executives gave him a free rein, was supposedly the
'Golden Age' of British broadcasting. This was a time, uncomplicated by the
worldwide web, when the stars of the two big channels were guaranteed a mass
audience and the fame that came with it. They did not need Twitter to amplify
their public profile.
In defence of television, it was an ITV documentary, Exposure, which
investigated Savile's murky past and opened the floodgates for hundreds of
alleged victims to come forward.
But the BBC's own attempts to hold itself to account were mostly shambolic.
Newsnight's failure to show its own investigation into Savile became a central
feature of the scandal and, although BBC1's Panorama regained some pride with a
critical documentary, the BBC2 show was out of control. A fresh piece on child
abuse in care homes, designed to salvage Newsnight's reputation, was fatally
compromised by Twitter speculation on the identity of the supposed
perpetrator.
The online smearing of the former Tory party treasurer sealed the fate of BBC
Director General George Entwistle, who had been trying to ride out the Savile
storm. His arrival in post, only 54 days earlier, had been greeted with
enthusiasm.
For Fleet Street, this was the year of reckoning for the tabloid
misdemeanours exposed in 2011. After the public revulsion over the hacking of
Milly Dowler's phone, the press has effectively had to submit to being put on
trial. The Leveson inquiry has meant that powerful figures such as Paul Dacre,
editor of the Daily Mail, Dominic Mohan, editor of the Sun and Richard Desmond,
publisher of the Daily Express and the Daily Star, have faced questioning in
front of the television cameras, a medium they prefer to avoid.
As the judge's inquisitors taunted them over their papers' involvement in
acquiring personal data and harassing celebrities, Scotland Yard was developing
its own narrative on press skulduggery. Operation Elveden led to a wave of
arrests from the Sun newsroom over alleged payments to public officials. Other
News International journalists have been arrested this year as part of the
parallel Operation Tuleta, which is focused on computer hacking.
At the end of November, Leveson finally published his report, and called for
the use of statutory underpinning to support a new independent press regulator.
Some editors and newspaper barons had snarled before the judge. Suddenly they
were obliged to unite with their rivals and accept the great bulk of Leveson's
proposals – or face the imposition of a press law that would break 300 years of
British tradition.
And neither does radio emerge unscathed. Already damaged by the scandal
involving Radio 1 stalwart Savile and some subsequent arrests, the sector
suffered a fresh blow this month when the heartbreaking death of nurse Jacintha
Saldanha provided a cold reminder of the consequences of the medium's culture of
prank phone calls. We enter 2013 with news information more plentiful than ever.
But, after 2012, we have a major dilemma: just who can we trust?
@rupertmurdoch Seems impossible to have civilised debate on
twitter. Ignorant, vicious abuse lowers whole society, maybe shows real social
decay
Rupert Murdoch, chairman of News Corporation
@jonsnowC4 [to Rupert Murdoch] I find that in life one reaps
what one sows…
Jon Snow, journalist
@Domponsford Like the beef industry after BSE – British
journalism has to show it has taken the action needed to restore confidence
Dominic Ponsford, editor of the Press Gazette
@BBCPeterHunt Lord Justice Leveson on Heat: "it's a very
different journal to my normal". #Leveson #hacking
Peter Hunt, BBC Royal Correspondent
@fieldproducer News has changed and the entire process of
how a news organisation operates is now visible to viewers through social
media
Neal Mann, journalist at Sky News
@rupertmurdoch I have nothing to do with Sky News
Rupert Murdoch
@campbellclaret Encouraged by Jeremy Hunt re press. New
tough regulator set up by Parliament then independent of media- politics.
Ownership also issue tho
Alastair Campbell, former Downing Street Director of
Communications
@piersmorgan Was Abu Qatada released from jail to make room
for all the journalists being arrested? What the hell is happening in Britain?
Ridiculous
Piers Morgan, journalist
@alextomo K Mackenzie's response to questions about
Hillsborough was to hit me repeatedly with his car door
Alex Thomson, Channel 4 News reporter
The Economy
Some years are best forgotten. And, for the British economy, 2012 is one of
them. Over the past 12 miserable months Britain slipped backwards, experiencing
its first double-dip recession since the 1970s. The UK's national income is now
likely to be smaller at the end of 2012 than it was at the beginning of the
year.
The contraction began in the final three months of 2011 and the economy did
not start growing again until this summer, when output was boosted by Olympic
ticket sales. But most indicators are now pointing down again and analysts are
worrying about the possibility of a "triple dip".
It is true that employment has held up remarkably well given the stagnation
of output. The unemployment rate has actually ticked down a little this year.
But around half of the new jobs created are part-time. Under- employment –
people who want to work more hours but cannot find it – is now at very high
levels. Hardly cause for celebration.
This is not what was supposed to happen: 2012 was supposed to be a year in
which things started to get better. So whose fault is it? The Chancellor, George
Osborne, blames the eurozone crisis, pointing out that an inherently flawed
single currency project and political dithering by Continental politicians have
undermined demand for our exports and harmed our big banks. An unexpected spike
in inflation, which has cut domestic consumer spending power, is also presented
as a culprit. Yet others complain that the Treasury has not helped. The Labour
opposition and a growing number of economists say the Chancellor's deep spending
cuts sucked demand out of the economy at the worst possible time. George Osborne
would not admit it, but the new capital expenditure projects he outlined in his
latest mini Budget represent a tacit acceptance of this critique.
There was some progress in Europe this year. Greece teetered on the precipice
but confounded predictions that Athens would crash out of the single currency.
The Spanish government swallowed its pride and applied for a bailout for its
rotten banks. And, in September, the president of the European Central Bank,
Mario Draghi, finally faced down the conservative German Bundesbank and promised
he wouldn't let the borrowing costs of member states spiral out of control.
Europe has stabilised. But with several Southern member states still struggling
with vast national debts and levels of unemployment not seen since the Great
Depression, it is the stability of a dormant volcano.
There were few sources of hope elsewhere. America re-elected Barack Obama but
politicians in Washington are still deadlocked over how to balance the US
budget. The country shuffles closer to a 'fiscal cliff' next year that could
trigger automatic spending cuts and tax rises on a scale that would surely
plunge America back into recession. The mighty Chinese economy avoided the hard
landing that some had forecast in 2012. However, November's leadership
transition in Beijing left reformers marginalised. China remains addicted to
investment spending, storing up the possibility of a huge banking crisis in the
world's second largest economy.
Weak growth is already playing havoc with our public finances. This month,
the Chancellor admitted that he would miss his own self-imposed target of
reducing the national debt by 2015-16. Mercifully, the 'Fiscal Mandate' turned
out not to be mandatory, sparing us further immediate austerity. Yet a deficit
reduction programme that was supposed to take five years will now take eight.
And many people on benefits will now face a real-terms squeeze on their incomes
starting next year, just as more state workers face redundancy because of
departmental spending cuts.
The New Year also brings the prospect of a downgrade of Britain's AAA credit
rating by one of the big agencies. In July, as the Bank of England takes on new
regulatory powers, the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street will have its first
foreign governor in Mark Carney. The Canadian central banker, unveiled in
November, has been presented as an economic miracle worker by some of his
British fans, not least George Osborne. If 2013 turns out anything like as bad
as 2012 for the British economy, Mr Carney will need to be.
@juliangough Lodging money into my Irish bank account feels
like leaving it in a cardboard building that's only caught fire 3 times in the
past 4 years
Julian Gough, author
@giles_fraser George Carey defending deserving and
undeserving poor distinction in the Mail. In tough times, poor always get blamed
for their poverty
Giles Fraser, former Canon Chancellor of St Paul's Cathedral
@Peston Paradox for UK of eurozone's mess: growth hurt by
e'zone crisis; if e'zone stabilises, UK debt looks more ugly in ugly contest
#bbceconomy
Robert Peston, BBC Business Editor
@TonyTassell Surprised by the sympathy for Goodwin this
morning. A lot of people have lost a lot more than a silly title as a result of
the financial crisis
Tony Tassell, financial news editor, Financial Times
@Stellacreasy Youth unemployment is now 1 in 5 – highest
since 1992. Not just a generation but entire society now watching potential
being wasted…
Stella Creasy, Labour MP for Walthamstow
@GeorgeMonbiot Tax cuts, benefit cuts, public sector pay
cuts. This is undisguised economic warfare by the rich against the poor
George Monbiot, author and columnist
@Mrjohnofarrell Do Clinton Cards sell one that says 'Sorry
you're going into administration'?
John O'Farrell, comedy writer
The EU
To the discomfort of great financial brains such as George Soros or Boris
Johnson, the euro has survived another year.
This was the year when the euro was finally doomed; when eurozone governments
could no longer "kick the can down the road" at "last-chance summits". It was
the year when the markets would finally foreclose on Greece, Spain and
Italy.
It was the year when the contradictions at the heart of the euro – a single
currency without a single economy or a single political purpose or even a proper
central bank – would rip apart the whole project and plunge the world into an
economic ice-age.
In June, Mr Soros said that the euro had "only days to live". Surprise,
surprise, the euro is still here. It remains quite strong against the dollar and
the pound on financial markets. Eurozone governments have proved that, yes, they
can kick cans down roads.
In 2012, the new European Central Bank governor, Mario Draghi – candidate for
European Hero of the Year – discovered that Frankfurt had hitherto unsuspected,
independent powers to bail out floundering eurozone banks and nations. In other
words, the ECB now claims the right to a form of the Quantitative Easing (or
open-ended printing of money) deployed by the Bank of England and Federal
Reserve to keep the British and American economies afloat since 2008.
Since the beginning of the eurozone crisis in 2010, markets have been pushing
two ways. There are some investors who believe that it is a smart idea to shove
all of us over a cliff and pick our pockets on the way down. There are some who
feel this is not such a good plan.
Mr Draghi's innovations have helped the second to win the battle against the
first, for now. He has given financial markets a reason not to destroy the euro
and cripple the world economy. He has given eurozone governments a breathing
space.
The longer-term questions remain unanswered: can the euro survive? Does it
make sense?
In 2012, eurozone governments have pushed ahead with their fiscal pact, which
forbids them to build up large new debt mountains in the future. They are still
examining ways of creating an "economic government" for euroland. This would, in
theory, give the eurozone a single political direction. It would not immediately
bridge the gulf between, say, the German and Spanish economies; or even the
growing competitive gap between the German and French economies.
The crisis in the eurozone is more than just a crisis of debt. It is a crisis
of diverging economic models within one currency zone – something that goes well
beyond the differences that also exist between, say, Mississippi and Connecticut
in the 'dollarzone" or between Country Durham and Surrey in the 'poundzone'.
The eurozone crisis is also an existential crisis: a crisis of identity.
Having created a single currency without the political machinery to make it
work, how far are eurozone countries prepared to dissolve national
decision-making into a de facto federal government to run, and create, a single
economy? What democratic legitimacy would such a "European government" have?
Another event in 2012 rearranged the three-dimensional chess-board of
eurozone politics: the change of government in France. President François
Hollande came to power in May saying that he would shift the game away from
"all-austerity" and towards "growth with discipline".
President Hollande has marginally amended EU policy in this direction. In
return, to the fury of his own left-wingers, he signed up at the "last-chance
summit" in Brussels in June for the Angela Merkel-inspired deficit-squeezing
fiscal pact.
As the year ends, huge differences remain between Paris and Berlin – perhaps
greater than at any time since the EU (née EEC) was founded.
Paris speaks of solving the crisis though "solidarity" between eurozone
countries. It has become the de facto leader of a "southern" bloc which wants
the Germans and other rich northerners to use their relative prosperity to
reflate the whole European economy.
Berlin speaks of solving the crisis through a single European government
which would, implicitly, impose a German approach to fiscal discipline and
economic competitiveness.
The French – both Right and Left – reject the idea of an all-powerful,
federal government for the eurozone. Final decision-making on taxing and
spending and labour policy (the 35-hour week) must remain with national
governments.
Berlin may be right economically but it is wrong politically and
democratically. There is no popular support for a fully federal eurozone, not in
Germany, not in France, not anywhere. There is no obvious way that such a
government could be democratically elected or controlled.
Paris may by right politically and democratically but it is on weak ground
economically. The French version of "eurozone governance lite" would, at worst,
be an amended version of the present, can-kicking muddle. It would be unlikely
to persuade the markets that solid, new foundations have been constructed under
the eurozone.
The years go by. The euro is still with us. So is the crisis.
@peston Hollande + Merkel = Homer. Merkel + Hollande =
Merde
Robert Peston, BBC Business Editor
@DMiliband Greek election result far more "dangerous" than
Francois Hollande
David Miliband, Labour MP for South Shields
@chris_coltrane I'm a firm Eurosceptic. I don't even think
Europe exists. Has anyone actually ever *been* there? Not that I know of. It's a
pack of lies
Chris Coltrane, comedian
@Owen Jones84 The Euro-zone is plunged back into re-cession.
Aus-terity has sucked out growth, demand and jobs, and devastated millions of
lives
Owen Jones, columnist for The Independent and i
@nigel_farage I think the EU flag should fly over the Palace
of Westminster. That would at least reflect what is going on
Nigel Farage, UKIP leader
@faisalislam And the €zone officially NOT in technical
recession. But we in UK officially are. But its the €zone's fault that we are in
recession # logic
Faisal Islam, Channel 4 News Economics Editor
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